Scientists expect Alaska's climate to get warmer over time—and the changing climate could make it roughly 10% to 20% more expensive to build and maintain public infrastructure in Alaska between now and 2030 and 10% more expensive between now and 2080. These are preliminary estimates of how much climate warming could increase the future costs for roads, harbors, schools, the power grid, sewer systems, and all the other public infrastructure that keeps Alaska functioning.

A warming climate will damage Alaska's infrastructure—and make it more expensive to maintain and replace—because that infrastructure was designed for a cold climate. These preliminary estimates of how much infrastructure costs might increase are from a model ISER researchers developed with help from faculty at UAA's School of Engineering and the University of Colorado.

• Even without climate change, the costs of maintaining and replacing federal, state, and local infrastructure in Alaska are considerable—an estimated $32 billion between now and 2030 and $56 billion between now and 2080.
  
• Damage from climate change could add $3.6 billion to $6.1 billion to infrastructure costs between now and 2030 and $5.6 billion to $7.6 billion between now and 2080, depending on the level of climate change and assuming that government agencies adapt infrastructure to changing conditions.
  
• Not all areas of Alaska or types of infrastructure will be equally affected by climate change. The damage will be concentrated in areas where permafrost thaws, flooding increases, and coastal erosion gets worse. Extra infrastructure costs in the next 25 years will mostly be for maintaining or replacing roads, airport runways, and water and sewer systems.

Researchers:

Peter Larsen (Principal Investigator, ISER-UAA), O. Scott Goldsmith (ISER-UAA), Orson Smith (UAA-Engineering), Meghan Wilson (ISER-UAA), Ken Strzepek ( U. of Colorado-Engineering), Paul Chinowsky ( U. of Colorado-Engineering), and Ben Saylor (ISER-UAA)

Funding Source:

University of Alaska System, National Commission on Energy Policy, Alaska Conservation Foundation, Rural Alaska Community Action Program