Archived Research Matters - 2009
Research Matters No. 44: The Changing Economic Status of Alaska Natives, 1970-2007 July 15, 2009
Economic conditions among Alaska Natives are much better today than they were in 1970—but they still fall considerably below averages among other Alaskans and other Americans. That's the picture from a new analysis by Stephanie Martin and Alexandra Hill of ISER. Using mainly data from the U.S. Census Bureau, the researchers found:
- Poverty among Alaska Natives is nearly double the U.S. average—but it's only half what it was in 1970.
- Even with the national unemployment rate at 9.5%, the rate among Alaska Natives is still estimated to be twice as high.
- Many more Alaska Natives—especially women— have jobs now than in 1970, but the unemployment rate is actually higher. That's because the number of Alaska Natives in the job market has grown faster than the number of jobs. The Alaska Native population has more than doubled since 1970.
- The median income of Alaska Native households is about two-thirds that of all Alaska households, and it's roughly 20% below that of all U.S. households. Still, the real (adjusted for inflation) median income of Alaska Native households is about 50% higher than it was in 1970.
To learn more, see ISER's Web Note 5. If you have questions, get in touch with Stephanie Martin, assistant professor of economics and public policy at ISER: 907-786-5430 .
Early 2009
- There's a major problem for Medicare patients looking for new family
doctors in Anchorage, a noticeable problem in the Mat-Su Borough and
Fairbanks, and little problem in other areas. In Alaska's smaller
communities, most doctors still accept new Medicare patients.
- The ISER survey found only five primary-care doctors in private practice
willing to take new Medicare patients in Alaska's largest city.
- Another five doctors at the Anchorage Neighborhood Health Center see new
Medicare patients. The number of Medicare patients at the center has more
than doubled since 2001.
- Most primary-care doctors (even in Anchorage) will still see established
Medicare patients—that is, patients they've seen in the past.
- About one in ten primary-care doctors ISER surveyed have "opted out" of the
Medicare system. That means they will not accept Medicare payments, but some
will still see Medicare patients who agree to pay the entire doctor's bill
themselves. Most of those doctors are in Anchorage.
- The 2009 increase in Medicare payments didn't persuade primary-care
doctors to open their doors to significant numbers of new Medicare patients.
But it's certainly possible that the increase—spearheaded by Alaska's U.S.
senators—kept more doctors from turning away Medicare patients.
Research Matters No. 43: How Hard is it for Medicare Patients to Find Family
Doctors?
March 25, 2009
For the past few years, Alaskans have been hearing reports about primary-care doctors turning away Medicare patients. Medicare pays primary-care doctors only about two-thirds of what private insurance pays, even after a sizable increase in 2009. But until now, there were no broad figures to show how many primary-care doctors have decided not to see Medicare patients. So ISER surveyed primary-care doctors statewide to find out—and got better than an 85% response rate. A new publication by Rosyland Frazier and Mark Foster reports the survey findings.
Read the research summary: How Hard Is It for Alaska's Medicare Patients to Find Family Doctors? Also available are back-up materials for the summary and a basic model that doctors—or anyone else—can use to estimate how changing the mix of patients paying with Medicare and with private insurance could affect doctors' revenues. If you have questions, get in touch with the authors at 907-786-7710 or ayiser@uaa.alaska.edu.
Research Matters No. 42: Alaska's Construction Spending: 2009 Forecast
February 10, 2009
Construction spending in Alaska this year will be about $7.1 billion, down 3% from last year's total. That's the new estimate prepared by Scott Goldsmith and Mary Killorin of ISER for the Associated General Contractors of Alaska. It's based on currently anticipated spending, taking into account a likely modest boost from a federal stimulus package.
Private sector spending will be about $4.3 billion, down 12%. Both commercial and residential construction are expected to be weaker, in response to conditions in the national economy. But spending by the oil and gas sector, which invests strategically, is less affected by the current national recession. Completion of several large projects in the mining, utility, and commercial property sectors will also mean less privately financed spending in 2009 than in 2008.
Public sector spending is expected to be around $2.7 billion, up 16% and helping offset the decline in private spending. That growth will be mainly from a large state capital budget in fiscal year 2009 (for the period July 2008 to June 2009), but increased federal construction spending for military and civilian-agency projects will also contribute.
The authors point out that several factors this year add to the uncertainty in any forecast, including recent lower prices for petroleum and metals and the continuing national recession, which will affect Alaska more the longer it lasts.
The full forecast is available on the Web site of the Associated General Contractors and from ISER. If you have questions about the forecast, get in touch with Scott Goldsmith (907-786-7720).
Research Matters No. 41: The Cost of Crime: Could the State Reduce
Future Crime and Save Money by Expanding Education and Treatment Programs?
February 3, 2009
Alaska has among the fastest-growing prison populations in the country, with five times more inmates now than in 1981. Spending for the state justice system nearly doubled between 1981 and 2007. And with no change in policies, the number of Alaska inmates is likely to double in the next 20 years. The dilemma for the state is how to hold down the number of Alaskans behind bars and stem the rising costs—while at the same time keeping the public safe and using tax dollars effectively.
A new analysis by Stephanie Martin and Steve Colt of ISER finds that the state could save an estimated $321 million and reduce the projected number of inmates 10% by 2030, if it expanded a number of intervention and treatment programs it already has in place. Those programs are for people in prison or at risk or ending up there, and they're all intended to reduce crime in some way.
Expanding the programs would save money both by reducing growth in the number of inmates and by delaying construction of new prisons. ISER did the analysis for Senator Hollis French, chairman of the Alaska state senate's judiciary committee. To see the analysis, click here. Copies are also available from ISER (907-786-7710). If you have questions, get in touch with Stephanie Martin (907-786-5430).
Research Matters No. 40: Enclosing the Fisheries: People, Places, and Power January 20, 2009
In Alaska, British Columbia, and other places in the North Pacific, almost all commercial fisheries are now managed under restricted access systems, which limit the number of boats that can fish and put fishing rights into the hands of a limited number of people. Restricting access to the fisheries and privatizing fishing rights are intended to make the fisheries more economically efficient—a process economists call "rationalization." But closing access to fisheries that had previously been open to all comers also has many social effects on the people and communities that rely on fishing. A new book, Enclosing the Fisheries: People, Places, and Power, published by the American Fisheries Society, describes those effects in a series of papers drawing on research in coastal communities in Alaska, British Columbia, Iceland, and New Zealand. The book is a record of the social processes and consequences of privatization in fisheries, ranging from simple limits on entry to transferable individual quotas. It attempts to give a voice to people displaced from the fisheries as a result of consolidation of ownership, fewer jobs and less income, prohibitive entry costs, and loss of fishing rights for small communities.
Marie Lowe, assistant professor of anthropology at ISER, and Courtney Carothers, assistant professor of fisheries at the University of Alaska Fairbanks, co-edited the book and contributed chapters on issues fishing communities in Alaska face under restricted-access systems.
The book has a cover price of $35 and is available from the American Fisheries Society. If you have questions, get in touch with Marie Lowe by e-mail or phone (907-786-6534).